Contrarian Technical Trading Rules: Evidence From Nairobi Stock Index

We apply several popular technical trading rules in the normal way and a contrarian way to daily data of the Nairobi Stock Index from 9/12/2006 to 4/18/2013. The contrarian usage of popular technical trading rules implies that when a technical trading indicator emits buy (sell) signals, we do the opposite and sell (buy) the index. Results from the study support the predictive power of contrarian technical trading rules. We also investigate whether a trader can use the predictive power of contrarian technical rules to beat the profitability of the buy-and-hold strategy considering both transaction costs and risk. Designing four strategies of various contrarian trading rules, we conclude that it is possible to beat the buy-and-hold strategy even considering transaction costs and risk

Determinants of Intra-SSA Tourism Demand

The study examines factors that influence demand for intra- sub-Saharan Africa countries’ tourism for 46 bilateral countries using a dynamic panel (system GMM) data model technique. The study employs most common macroeconomic variables and some critical social variables that help explain demand for African tourism. Results from the study suggest that while most common variables are significant, intra-SSA tourists consider internet usage important and prefer to visit less urbanized regions in SSA. However, there is enough evidence in the study to conclude that reasons for travelling within Africa are not much different than for international tourists

Democracy and Inter-Regional Trade Enhancement in Sub-Saharan Africa: Gravity Model

There has been considerable research on the effect of democracy on trade openness since the 1980s when development strategies toward free trade and democracy were rapidly adopted in developing countries. Most studies have focused on Asian, Latin American, and former soviet bloc countries and few studies have focused on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study is an attempt to fill that gap and uses a gravity model approach to test the effects of democracy in SSA on trade. Our results show that democracy has substantial impact on openness to trade and SSA democratic countries will trade more with other countries irrespective of their level of democracy, when compared to non-democratic countries. The results do not vary much even when we use different sources of democracy variable. Also, democratic countries trade more among each other perhaps due to having a shared business environment

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkish Imports of Cocoa Beans

The present paper uses asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modeling where a nonlinear adjustment of the exchange rate yields results that are different than those yielded by linear models. We study cocoa imports for Turkey with advanced ARDL and nonlinear ARDL frameworks. Our findings reveal that there is considerable asymmetry for the case of Turkish cocoa bean imports from Côte d’Ivoire. Compared with imports from Ghana, there are significant differences in Turkish importers’ preferences when choosing between the two cocoa bean providers. Our results provide support for the nonlinear adjustment of the real Turkish lira–US dollar exchange rate and a hint of imperfect rivalry in Turkish cocoa bean imports

Energy consumption and economic development in Sub-Sahara Africa

Sub-Saharan African countries' economic development is dependent on energy consumption. This paper assesses total energy demand, which is composed of traditional energy (wood fuel) and commercial energy (electricity and petroleum), in the Central, East, South, and West regions of Sub-Saharan Africa. Cross-sectional time series data for 20 countries in 25 years are analyzed, and the results of the study show that wood fuel accounts for 70% of energy consumption, followed by petroleum, with most industrial activities utilizing some form of wood fuel. Regression results suggest that energy demand is inversely related to the price of petroleum and industrial development, but positively related to GDP, population growth rate, and agricultural expansion, and that price elasticity is less than one. The model results also show that there are regional differences in energy demand. In addition, the interaction of population growth rates by regions generates mixed results, and there are regional differences in the use of commercial energy consumption, and GDP growth. The findings of this study suggest that countries must diversify their energy sources and introduce energy-efficient devices and equipment at all levels of the economy to improve GDP growth rate and GDP per capita.Energy Development Commercial energy GDP

Energy consumption and economic development in Sub-Sahara Africa

Sub-Saharan African countries' economic development is dependent on energy consumption. This paper assesses total energy demand, which is composed of traditional energy (wood fuel) and commercial energy (electricity and petroleum), in the Central, East, South, and West regions of Sub-Saharan Africa. Crosssectional time series data for 20 countries in 25 years are analyzed, and the results of the study show that wood fuel accounts for 70% of energy consumption, followed by petroleum, with most industrial activities utilizing some form of wood fuel. Regression results suggest that energy demand is inversely related to the price of petroleum and industrial development, but positively related to GDP, population growth rate, and agricultural expansion, and that price elasticity is less than one. The model results also show that there are regional differences in energy demand. In addition, the interaction of population growth rates by regions generates mixed results, and there are regional differences in the use of commercial energy consumption, and GDP growth. The findings of this study suggest that countries must diversify their energy sources and introduce energy-efficient devices and equipment at all levels of the economy to improve GDP growth rate and GDP per capita